You’ve seen a lot—like, a lot—of talk about why or why not Trump 2016 is a good thing. Now, The Economist is saying that voting Donald J. Trump into presidential office would pose a “top-10 risk event” that could disrupt the world economy, lead to political chaos in the U.S. and heighten security risks for the United States. If that’s not dramatic enough, according to the latest EIU forecasts, Trump could start a trade war, hurt trade with Mexico and “be a godsend” to terrorist recruiters in the Middle East. Other risks on the list include a sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy, a fracture of the Eurozone and Britain’s possible departure from the European Union. Up until now, the highly respected economic and geopolitical firm has never rated the potential election of a candidate. The EIU writes:
“It’s highly unusual, and I don’t think we ever have done it where we’ve had a single politician be the center of our risk items. Innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr. Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress. But such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking.”
But it wasn’t just foreign policy that worried EIU. There are also serious risks to the global economy if Trump is elected. “The prospects for a trade war are quite high,” said Robert Powell, global risk briefing manager at EIU. “Why is a guy who has many of his goods made in China wanting to start a trade war in China?” Trump also call for more aggressive tactics against ISIS. Powell cited estimates finding that a year-long excursion in Syria of 20,000-30,000 U.S. troops could cost $25 billion. Trump has previously promised to seize Syria’s oil fields and refineries, which help keep ISIS afloat, and then sell the oil to pay for a U.S. military campaign. But Powell’s findings showed that the numbers didn’t align for that plan. He said that at current oil prices, if the U.S. actually stole the oil, it would only net about $500 million.