Well, the Oscars are here, for better or worse. Probably worse, if we’re being honest, since this year’s broadcast has the most “how do you do, fellow kids?” energy of any recent, ostensibly serious art thing in recent memory. Cinematic luminaries like Tony Hawk and DJ Khaled will hand out a few awards while a lot of the categories — score, editing, makeup; you know, the stuff that actually makes up a movie — aren’t even going to be part of the broadcast. And don’t forget the #OscarsCheerMoment, which feels like it’s trying to muscle in on MTV’s turf.
None of this is the fault of the movies themselves, many of which were very good. Unlike recent years, the popular understanding of the “clear frontrunner” has evolved a lot in recent years, as one-time underdogs are starting to look like sure bets. Here are our predictions for this year’s Oscar winners in the major categories.
Best Picture
This one has become a real coin flip between prestige favorite The Power of the Dog and bighearted underdog CODA. Jane Campion’s austere Western has all the hallmarks of being an Oscar favorite, but in these bleak times, the warmth of CODA has proven to be a huge hit and has fueled Sian Heder’s surge. It could go either way, but we’re going with CODA.
Will Win: CODA
Might Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Nominated: The Worst Person in the World
Best Director
Even if CODA perseveres, its director didn’t even land a nomination. That leaves the lane pretty wide open for The Power of the Dog director Jane Campion to rack up an Oscar here, becoming just the third woman to ever win, following Kathryn Bigelow for Hurt Locker and Chloé Zhao for Nomadland.
Will Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Might Win: Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Should Have Been Nominated: Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
Best Actor
Will Smith will win. It might be the night’s surest bet. He’s been an early frontrunner, a delightful awards scene presence and has been nominated enough times without a win in the past that voters are probably feeling like it’s time to give him his due. Plus, Smith’s performance in King Richard was genuinely terrific.
Will Win: Will Smith, King Richard
Might Win: Andrew Garfield, tick, tick …BOOM!
Should Have Been Nominated: Nicolas Cage, Pig
Best Actress
This might be the night’s biggest toss-up, as the all the nominees seem to be neck-a-neck. For a while, Jessica Chastain and Kirsten Stewart seemed to be the clear frontrunners for The Eyes of Tammy Faye and Spencer, respectively, but Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) have all had strong showings lately. This could go a lot of directions but we’re going to go with Chastain by a hair.
Will Win: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Might Win: Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Should Have Been Nominated: Jennifer Hudson, RESPECT
Best Supporting Actor
Kodi Smit-McPhee’s The Power of the Dog performance was probably the most striking thing about the very striking movie, but Troy Kotsur is the one to beat here. If he wins here, he’ll be just the second deaf actor to ever to do so.
Will Win: Troy Katsur, CODA
Might Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Nominated: Jeffrey Wright, The French Dispatch
Best Supporting Actress
In Oscar history, two different actors have won an Oscar for the same role two different times. Heath Ledger and Joaquin Phoenix both won for playing the Joker, and Robert De Niro and Marlon Brando both won for Vito Corleone. If Ariana DeBose wins for her role as Rita for West Side Story, as she probably will and should, then that will make her the third. Rita Moreno won for the first West Side Story.
Will Win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Might Win: Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Nominated: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Best Adapted Screenplay
This seems like the surest weathervane for Best Picture. If CODA wins here, it’ll win Best Picture. If The Power of the Dog triumphs, then it takes home the prize. If something else wins …well, then things should get interesting. But we’ll go with CODA.
Will Win: Sian Heder, CODA
Might Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Nominated: Steven Levenson, tick, tick …BOOM!
Best Original Screenplay
This is a little bit of a three-way heater, since Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast, Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza and Adam McKay’s Don’t Look Up have all clinched some early awards. Still, Belfast was an early favorite that appealed to middlebrow Oscar voters in a way Pizza didn’t and was widely loved in a way Don’t Look Up wasn’t.
Will Win: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Might Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Should Have Been Nominated: Nicole Holofcener, Ben Affleck and Matt Damon, The Last Duel
Best International Feature
Drive My Car has become a minor phenomenon in the weeks since it was nominated, proving that as embarrassing and cringe as the Oscars can be, they can still fuel success for movies that would likely have otherwise flown under audiences’ radars. That momentum will likely carry it to a victory here.
Will Win: Drive My Car
Might Win: The Worst Person in the World
Should Have Been Nominated: Titane
Best Documentary Feature
It’s always a little tough to guess these, since even Oscar voters never seem particularly motivated to watch as many documentaries as they do scripted movies. That leaves a lot of this category up to accessibility, and no doc was more accessible than Questlove’s Summer of Soul. The man is about to be one step closer to an EGOT.
Will Win: Summer of Soul
Might Win: Flee
Should Have Been Nominated: The Rescue
Best Animated Feature
The Mitchells VS the Machines is more dazzling and Flee more inventive, but voters will almost certainly go for Encanto.
Will Win: Encanto
Might Win: The Mitchells VS the Machines
Should Have Been Nominated: Given the amount of green screens involved …maybe Spider-Man: No Way Home?
Best Editing
Sometimes, this award tends to be less about the “best editing” and more about the “most editing,” which isn’t necessarily the same thing in a movie. That said, King Richard and tick, tick …BOOM! both showcased a lot of fancy editing tricks, but we expect this will be just one of the many technical awards Dune ends up taking home.
Will Win: Dune
Might Win: King Richard
Should Have Been Nominated: West Side Story
Best Original Song
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This could have been an absolute surefire win for Lin-Manuel Miranda if Disney had submitted “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” but nominations came months before that song became a phenomenon and the more conventional “Dos Oruguitas” was submitted instead. Shouldn’t hurt his chances too much. Welcome to the EGOT Club, Lin-Manuel.
Will Win: “Dos Oruguitas,” Lin-Manuel Miranda
Might Win: “No Time to Die,” Billie Eilish
Should Have Been Nominated: We don’t talk about …that.
Best Score
It’d be fun to see Johnny Greenwood take it for The Power of the Dog here, and his nervy work on the movie was indeed excellent. But everyone loves Hans Zimmer going full Hans Zimmer, and he didn’t hold back on Dune. Congratulations, Tuvan throat singers!
Will Win: Hans Zimmer, Dune
Might Win: Johnny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Nominated: Antonio Pino, Nine Days
Best Cinematography
Like we said, we expect to see a lot of Dune in the craft awards here. That’s desert power, baby.
Will Win: Greig Fraser, Dune
Might Win: Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Nominated: Andrew Droz Palermo, Green Knight
Costume Design
If people remembered one thing about Cruella, it’s that the evil puppy killer from 101 Dalmatians became that way because of trauma. If they remember two things, it’s the costumes.
Will Win: Cruella
Might Win: West Side Story
Should Have Been Nominated: Green Knight
Best Makeup and Hairstying
A big goal of The Eyes of Tammy Faye was to help people see past the makeup and get to know the real, complex character of Tammy Faye underneath the mascara and hairdo. The problem is, the team did a little too good of a job on the makeup and hair to really ignore it. Oscar voters probably won’t.
Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Might Win: House of Gucci
Should Have Been Nominated: The Suicide Squad
Best Production Design
Don’t doubt Dune here, since its vast sci-fi landscapes were genuinely enthralling and altogether more memorable than The Tragedy of Macbeth and The Power of the Dog. Nightmare Alley might sneak in its only win of the night here (and, frankly, kind of deserves to), but it’s a longshot.
Will Win: Dune
Might Win: Nightmare Alley
Should Have Been Nominated: In the Heights
Best Sound
You know your sound is good when your movie is a sprawling tale of sci-fi politics, royal intrigue and sandworms, but you still leave thinking about little things like the slash of Duncan Idaho’s knives and the sand whipping against a spaceship.
Will Win: Dune
Might Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Nominated: The French Dispatch
Best Visual Effects
This would have been Spider-Man: No Way Home‘s opportunity to take home at least one award, but some of the green screen trickery left a bit to be desired in the year’s biggest movie. Of the two Marvel entries up for an award, Shang-Chi had the more impressive CGI, but don’t expect anyone to really remember that in our post Spider-verse cinematic landscape. Plus, Oscar voters will pat themselves on the back for voting for a prestige flick over a superhero movie. Dune wins again.
Will Win: Dune
Might Win: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Should Have Been Nominated: Venom: Let There Be Carnage
